摘要：【中文】本发明公开了一种考虑发展模式影响的农村中长期负荷预测方法，包括根据农村的历史负荷数据分析得到农村的各负荷类型分布；将农村的发展模式进行分类；分析得到目标农村的具体发展模式和目标农村在具体发展模式下的影响负荷变化的主因素；对目标农村的中长期负荷进行预测。本发明方法充分考虑了农村不同发展模式下负荷类型不同的特点；提出基于K‑means和高斯混合聚类的双层聚类分析算法；通过灰色关联度分析得到影响农村用电负荷的主要影响因素，并采用GRU模型预测农村中长期负荷预测，使得负荷预测结果更合理，更准确。 【EN】The invention discloses a rural medium and long term load prediction method considering development mode influence, which comprises the steps of analyzing and obtaining the distribution of each load type in a rural area according to the historical load data of the rural area; classifying development modes of rural areas; analyzing to obtain a specific development mode of the target rural area and main factors influencing load change of the target rural area under the specific development mode; and predicting the medium and long-term load of the target rural area. The method of the invention fully considers the characteristics of different load types in different rural development modes; a double-layer clustering analysis algorithm based on K-means and Gaussian mixed clustering is provided; main influence factors influencing rural power load are obtained through grey correlation degree analysis, and a GRU model is adopted to predict rural medium-long term load prediction, so that the load prediction result is more reasonable and accurate.