摘要：【中文】本发明公开了一种基于气象数值预报的水库调度预警方法，根据采集的目标水库流域内各水电站的水文信息计算流域内可拦蓄水量，根据可拦蓄水量修正前期影响雨量Pa；根据水文信息和气象信息确定径流系数ρ，基于径流系数ρ计算水库可容蓄净水量和可容蓄降水量，进行可容蓄降水量预警；根据水文信息、流域信息、前期影响雨量Pa、径流系数ρ和气象信息进行水库的短期时段径流量预报和计算中长期期末水位；根据水文信息、气象信息和期末水位信息确定防汛预警级别和抗旱预警级别，进行水库调度。本发明具有如下有益效果：提高了水库调度风险预警能力，确保水库大坝和下游人民生命财产的安全。 【EN】The invention discloses a reservoir dispatching early warning method based on meteorological numerical prediction, which comprises the steps of calculating impounded water capacity in a flow field according to collected hydrological information of all hydropower stations in the flow field of a target reservoir, and correcting early-stage influence rainfall Pa according to the impounded water capacity; determining a runoff coefficient rho according to the hydrological information and the meteorological information, calculating the clean water and the precipitation of the reservoir based on the runoff coefficient rho, and performing early warning on the precipitation of the reservoir; forecasting the runoff of the reservoir in a short period of time and calculating the end water level of the medium and long term according to hydrological information, basin information, early-stage influence rainfall Pa, runoff coefficient rho and meteorological information; and determining a flood prevention early warning level and a drought resistance early warning level according to the hydrological information, the meteorological information and the end-of-term water level information, and scheduling the reservoir. The invention has the following beneficial effects: the early warning capability of reservoir scheduling risks is improved, and the safety of reservoir dams and the lives and properties of downstream people is ensured.